Wednesday 24 December 2014

Why Amit Shah Should Sing “ Mehbooba …Mehbooba..”!?



So, the political dust is settling down in Jammu & Kashmir but this political thriller has  not ended yet.Though Jharkhand drama ended predictably , J & k remained full of suspense through out the counting day.Now it’s time to analyse the ground reality.Political situation in J & K post counting seems a political deadlock or ‘hung” assembly but political parties are ready to unfold their cards,relatively  slowly.

The game already started on the final  voting phase day when Mufti family praised Atalbihari Vajpayee’s regime & showered flowers on present government.As the results started pouring, mood in PDP camp was cheerful but cautious too as they focused on BJP’s gain in jammu region.Before the end of the day PDP gave clear signals to nationalists that they are ready to share power with them.Though this proposed coalition may sound unique.it’s the need of hour.Why & how?

First thing first.Times have changed .The entire nation is heading towords much awaited political stability,which will obviously bring peace & prosperity in years to come,politically, Prime Minister Narendrabhai Modi has established himself as “golden crowned king” of Indian politics &  Muftis know old & time tested formulae very well that  more you are near to power more you are safer.

Interestingly  with 28 seats in entire J & K assembly Mehbooba claimed for the power & BJP with 25 seats & atleast 5 sympathiser MLAs (i.e. 30 MLAs, more than single largest party post poll coalition) didn’t.That shows the dominance of valley in J &K’s politics.Infact BJP has achieved something unachievable that one couldn’t have even thought,had it not been a Modicentric,’Shah’tagic aggressive campaign in J & K .BJP has gained  23% overall vote share that is equivalent to PDP’s overall vote share.Though it’s dissected, BJP’s vote share in valley is only 2.3% which is comparatively mimimal.BJP also incurred ‘heavy’ loss as its all 25 candidates in valley lost & it didn’t open account in even Leh Ladakh where actually they were expecting all four seats to accomplish “Mission-44”.

Anyways the graound reality in J &K is totally different now.PDP is ready to capture the power.Interestingly spent forces like congress & national Conference(unashamedly) offering their support to keep away “communal forces”out of power,it’s an old game in valley & unfortunately for these parties it’s an outdated political option now.Interestingly that is the part of actual game plan.If PDP accepts these offers Jammu region will lose it’s much deserved,much awaited   power share in J & k assembly & injustice towards Jammu will continue for six years more.

Since BJP has jumped it’s tally from 11 to 25 seats by sweeping in Jammu region,it becomes it’s political duty to take care of regional interests.From the establishment of J & K ,the state has been governed by valley oriented leaders(barring a few cases) now its payback time for BJP to Jammu region being another single largest(post poll) coalition & they should not waste this opportunity.

If PDP +BJP formulae succeds(28+25) Jammu & Kashmir state will see a new sunrise.Though both the parties have serious ideological differences  on the part of section 370,separatism,AFSPA etc. a common minimum programme will be a win win situation for both the parties.Through this both can keep check & balance over each other’s “uncommon” agendas.Power sharing formulae can be finalized according to suitability of both the parties.

Now it’s high time for BJP to play the same old game (always) played by congress & NC in J & K to keep them away from power,which ultimately make them irrelevant sooner or later in J & K politics.BJP will be able to strengthen it’s position in other parts of valley & Leh Ladakh in future,if they handle the coalition carefully.This coalition will pass a serious message across border also.Pakistan & it’s separatist agenda may get curbed in this new situation.New vistas of development & employment will open for J &K’s youth.So, it’s time for Amitbhai to sing ‘Mehbooba…Mehbooba…” & offer her 25 “lotuses”.By the way lotus is a state symbol of Jammu & Kashmir.
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Monday 12 May 2014

Mein, Narendra Damodardas Modi…….(Part-2)

(Image Courtesy :Google Images)

So, today it is the last & most awaited phase of general elections-2014.Shriman Modi & other few distinguished ‘Netaz’ future is sealed in EVMs today.In my last post I predicted comfortable victory for BJP+(NDA).Now here are the reasons why Shriman Modi will take oath as a prime minister of this great nation in a few days.

*Anti Incumbancy Factor: 10 years of UPA Raaj was a disastrous experience for ‘mango people’.(in some cases even for congress loyalists too) In it’s first tenure UPA raised hopes in common man’s heart but in second part(2009-2014) it failed to fulfill the promises.All sorts of ‘certified scams(certified by CAG) also marred it’s image and killed all the possibilities of returning to power.Well, in all cases long term power doesn’t mean anti incumbency,say for example in recently concluded five assembly elections congress lost it’s both states i.e. Delhi & Rajasthan while BJP retained Madhyapradesh & Chhattisgarh & also captured Rajasthan from congress.

So what went wrong with congress? It’s inability to stop price rise,high inflation,rampant corruption & all sort of economic drudgery that a common man feels.Most importantly it failed to control it’s state units intact.the infight within state units was on it’s peak & they never united to deafeat bjp & we know the results.On the other hand under Narendrabhai’s leadership bjp heat the bull’s eye,opened all the follies of upa government   & encashed the anti establishment mood.

*Attracting Youth & Women Voters: Interestingly in this elections where there are 52% voters are youth who have aspirations regarding their employment,education etc.Though upa tried hard to implement some of it’s youth & employment oriented flagship programmes it couldn’t took off due to in efficiency on the government’s part.Out of this young voters around 22% voters are first timers who have seen the negative sides of UPA & positive branding of Narendra Modi on various platform.His ‘Gujarat model of governence’ & it’s propagation has increased their curiosity.especially women voters across the nation, home makers are fed up with issues like price rise, inflation which directly heat their budget.So, these voters are in ‘revenge’ mode now.

*Well planned strategy & prepoll alliance:In India only rabble rousing can’t bear the fruits of victory.you need to choose right partners for victory.This time BJP choose near about 25 regional political parties & strengthen it’s weak base in certain eastern & southern states.’The Grand Alliance’ in south & ‘Mahayuti’ in Maharashtra will do miracles since BJP has chosen right partners in respective states.These 25 party pre poll alliance has again removed political  stigma for Narendrabhai.Infact this partners may be usefull for BJP’s post poll alliance,if it is required at all.But a word of caution,this pre poll alliance will definitely need good co-ordination & a common mimimum programme as all regional partie will definitely eye on their pound of flash & regional interests.

*Higher Voting Turnout: Well ,this  may be the matter of tv studio debate whether a higher voting turnout is a vote for change or not? But as per my assessment the way voting turnout is breaking it’s all records nationwide it is an indication of change.People,especially youth,,women,farmers have voted as if they have decided to throw present government at any cost and the alternative? Well, you know the answer.In general it is not necessary that higher turnout should indicate change but after 1984(Indiraji’s death)this is the only election where voters are voting decisively for a stable government.

*Stability Plank: This is the most important aspect of this elections. People of this nation have watche all sorts of thuggish coalition governments, full of economic scams & non decisiveness on all important issues.Now after these experiments  voters have probably decided to vote for decisive, stable government haeded by a person who is not a spineless politician & who can fulfill his promises.BJP has tried hard to propagate thei stability plank at fullest.

*Strong Branding Of NAMO: as the Gujarat assembly elections were over & NAMO took charge for third term the foundation stone of his ‘road to Delhi’ was laid.Narendra Modi’s smart media managers have already started polishing his image nationwide(and internationally too).His decisiveness,good governance & hard core development oriented decisions were carefully publicized across nation.It created a very positive image amongst Indian citizens of all ages.The smart use of media made his name popular in every household.

*Aggressive Communication Strategy:In 21st century nothing is impossible for if you have enough money & tremendous will power.BJP managed to give smart makeover to NAMO’s image(post 2002) by using same media which lambasted him for years.In a country where almost every house(& juggi jhopdi too) has tv connections & mobile phones it is wasy to reach people’s heart.Some of the best brains of communication industry made this impossible & comparatively difficult task possible by using popular social networking platforms & it’s craze amongst youth.

*Minority Appeasement By Congress: In fact Congress has helped NAMO in many ways  but minority appeasement will prove costly to congress this time because narendra Modi & his team carefully toned down congress’s minority appeasement policies during  this elections.it obviously polarized ‘the hindu’ votes in BJP’s favour.Congress wanted to take advantage of NAMO’s post 2002 anti minority image & for that they did scathing attack on him too but Ahmedabad’s metropolitan court’s judgement has turned the tabl,ultimately this strategy has proved wrong & it will rebound as it has polarized votes significantly against congress.

*”Sangh” Shakti Kalauyugey’: Full & finally the ‘Parivaar’ has backed it’s ‘vadnagar boy’ whole heartedly.RSS’s determination to vote against the present government  has proved the last nail in the UPA’s coffin.The higher turnout also indicates the aggressive & pro BJP voting by swayamsevaks nationewide.Interestingly these votes are targeted to benefit BJP candiadates irrespective of cast & creed’s political equations.

Well, these are some of the indiacators of NDA’s returning  to power with a fresh blood.I will share state wise seat projection for NDA in part 3 soon, till than aavjo…

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Saturday 10 May 2014

Mein, Narendra Damodardas Modi…….! (Part-1)

(Representational Picture: Courtesy-Google Images)

So, that glorious moment in the life of ‘Vadnagar Boy’will arrive at last! Well feeling baffled? There is no need to be so. Shriman Narendra Modi has already conquered Delhi with the clear victory / majority on his side. No this is not a political forecast or a cruel joke (for my congress friends) but it’s true. 

In the next few days we will see a ‘proud Gujarati’ swearing in as a prime minister of this great nation, i.e. Bharat. But, how? that eternal question we are facing for last one year, how will it happen? As we are approaching  to the last phase of general elections-2014 now I could safely analyze the political situation & answer all these questions.

Indian political scenario has always remained unpredictable(barring some aperent elections) & interesting.The enthusiasm of political leaders,karyakartaz & “mango people” is a part of this long prevailing Indian democratic system.After independence our nation has seen major political changes in these last 67 years.emergence of major,minor,regional political parties,hunger for power, eye & heart catching slogans shouting,corruption and so on…but still power of democracy has remained intact, especially this  historical general election has proved it.

I know I may get labeled after this political analysis on BJP+ (NDA’s) victorious emergence in this general election, but I don’t mind all these labels as I can see the winds of change are blowing to uproot 128 years old congress & its allies.

There are many reasons to believe why Shriman Modi is coming to power. I would analyze each one by one, but some “Aankdebazi” first.As per my analysis based on ground reports,talks with people of all strata from  a few states,detailed history of concerned state’s political scenario & of course close observations of election propaganda of the major political forces.

As per my observation NDA will win around 285-290 seats and enjoy comfortable majority. Leading party BJP may get around 230-235 seats .As far as Gujarat,home pitch of Shriman Modi is concerned BJP may win 21-22 seats by sweeping congress down to dust.I know I am not a soothsayer but being a political analyst it becomes my humble duty to analyze situation rightly.In the part -2 I will analyze my logic behind NDA’s forcasted victory with facts & figures,till then aavjo,take care…


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Thursday 6 March 2014

Mahaabhishek of Indian Democracy.....


(By: S.Y.Quraishi,Former Chief Election Commissioner of India)

So India is all set to witness the biggest-ever election. With 81 crore voters and 11 million personnel conducting the polls at 9.36 lakh polling stations using 1.4 million EVMs, the Indian election is considered the biggest such event in the world. This is a management event that expects zero error and 100 per cent success. For the Election Commission, a 60 per cent successful election, or even 80 or 90 per cent success, is not an option.


The EC is now a very experienced institution, with a well-oiled machinery. Its foremost concern every time is, of course, a peaceful poll. The safety of voters, of polling staff and even of security forces is always an overriding concern. We cannot afford to lose any lives. The muscle power of the proverbial bahubali or strongman is now history. Vulnerability mapping, deployment of paramilitary forces and the 24×7 video watch on them ensures that they behave.
The other ongoing issue concerns the Model Code of Conduct (MCC). This is the most dreaded weapon in the hands of the EC. Every leader worth his salt shudders even at the thought of receiving a model code notice. Many citizens, however, feel disappointed that all that the EC does against defaulters is issue warnings, reprimands, condemnation or censure. They probably expect drastic action like the cancellation of elections, derecognition of the political party concerned or even the registration of criminal cases. They go to the extent of calling the EC toothless. This perception is absolutely flawed. The MCC’s moral authority is extremely high. The fact that even the issue of a notice hits the headlines and becomes a subject of editorial comment for days on end is a major punishment for the defaulting politician, who cannot afford to lose even 1 per cent of public support. Have you seen any hate speech in the last few years? Personal attacks have become a rare occurrence. The abuse of government facilities by the ruling party has been reduced to zero.
There have also been new developments in the last few years. The impact of these will be seen in the forthcoming elections for the first time.
Foremost among them is an unprecedented awakening among the youth and women in the wake of the creation of a voter education division in the EC. Its programme, SVEEP (systematic voters’ education and electoral participation), has metamorphosed voter apathy into a participation revolution. Four years ago, only 10 to 12 per cent of young voters who were 18-19 years old were enrolled. Now, the figure has gone up by an impressive margin. National Voters’ Day (NVD), observed on January 25, was specifically created to awaken the youth and women. The four NVDs that have been held so far have achieved enormous voter registration. The addition of over 100 million voters is largely a result of youth mobilisation through the NVDs.
Voter turnout has also increased phenomenally in the 22 states that went to polls in the last two years. Fourteen of these recorded their highest ever turnouts. In 17 of the 22 states that went to polls after the introduction of SVEEP, women outvoted men, despite an adverse gender ratio.
The “none of the above” (NOTA) option will be used for the first time in a general election, though it was used in the five state elections held over November-December 2013. Since this has not created the right to reject, I do not expect to see many people using it.
A significant new element would be the voter verifiable paper audit trail (VVPAT), though it will be implemented in just about 20,000 polling stations because of manufacturing constraints. Indian EVMs are absolutely reliable and, as Chief Election Commissioner V.S. Sampath said, they have stood the test of time. Yet a VVPAT answers the demands of the last of the doubting Thomases.
Another game-changer will be the distribution of voter slips by the EC itself. Ever since it was introduced in the Bihar assembly election in 2010, it has significantly enhanced voter turnout, by making it convenient for voters to locate their booths and their serial number on the electoral roll. It is also accepted as an alternative ID. Since it is issued just a few days before the polls, it has become the most dependable ID.
Another first will be the induction of IPS officers as police observers, a practice first tried in the 2011 West Bengal assembly elections to great effect. Earlier, only IAS officers were deployed as general observers and IRS officers as expenditure observers. Since the SVEEP is a major trust area, as Sampath announced, Indian Information Service officers will now be sent to see that awareness generation activities are on track too.

The EC is a very dynamic organisation and is always learning. The fact that a whole army of bright bureaucrats works overtime behind the scenes ensures the constant flow of new ideas. One such idea came from a young woman collector in Arunachal Pradesh — a live webcast from some of the remotest polling booths. It was so effective that the EC made it an all-India practice. One interesting point to be noted about this greatest man-made exercise is that it is conducted entirely by the much-derided bureaucracy. An election is their opportunity to prove their competence, as they do every time. When insulated from political pressures, they work under the hawk eye of the EC to conduct an event that Hillary Clinton recently described as the “global gold standard”.
(This article is taken from Indian Express with changed title,05/03/2014)(Image Courtesy:Google Images)

Saturday 15 February 2014

Tragicomedy Of A Rabble-Rouser….

                                                                                                               (courtesy:Google Images)

“Badhakey Pyaas Meri Usney Haath Chhod Diya,
Woh Kar Raha Tha Muravvat Bhi Dillagi Ki Tarah”

Well, it happened at last.Our beloved ‘Mukhya mantri’ of Delhi Shri A.K.-49 has left Delhi assembly to return back in street ‘fighting’(in decent words they say agitation) business as usaual,but this time he seemed well determined to make a come back in power with bang.His body language & yesterday’s (now going to be) famous speech from party office balcony was an admixture of his political frustration & well planned political move to topple Congress-BJP’s political motives & gain public sympathy at one go.

In politics, they say that it is always good to be a good leader, but it is always bad to be a leader in a hurry. It seems kejriwal lost his patience due to heavy political pressure & his inability to fulfill promises given to Delhi’s voters. Though he declared that he can throw chief  ministership hundred times for the Janlokpal cause, this was a bad political timing to move out of power & accept unnecessary political martyrdom.

Though AAP supporters & some political analysists are praising Kejriwal for this couragious(?) move,things  seem more difficult for his political ambitions.before leaving Delhi assembly & his voter’s aspirations haywire, kejriwal tried to implicate Narendra Modi & his alleged nexus with Mukesh Ambani,what a waste of political caliber.

If Kejriwal got the fantastic chance to settle score with power companies to put them under pressure,why didn’t he took it ?It was a golden political opportunity for him to be in driving seat,drive  recklessly(as usual) & keep on blaming road maker’s for accidents.But he didn’t go that way just because he was more interested in ripping political fruits rather then actualy following the case seriously & put all allegedly corrupt people behind the bars.He got trapped again in his shoot & scoot tendencies.

Now he knows his next big fight is going to be directly with BJP(in Delhi assembly & general elections)so to keep BJP & Narendra Modi busy in answering his allegations, he played this game smartly.Unfortunately he under estimated the long time political benefits for his short time goals.Now what if lieutenant Governor proposes President’s rule(that is likely to be) in Delhi assembly for six months elections would be held in next July or August,entire political scenario would be different.

Probably his ambition for National Office (read ‘to be a prime ministerial candidate’)has forced  him to take this drastic decision. kejriwal tried to kill two birds with a single stone.He wanted to capture Delhi by posing him as a martyr for the cause of his political ideology & by doing so he could get tremendous media mileage plus national space for his party in general elections.

For him best bait at this time is Narendrea Modi.It seems he has used people's sympathy for AAP ruthlessly to achieve his national goals.So lets wait & watch from which constituency he fields for parliamentary Elections.What ever the results may come ,his resignation in this manner has proved that nothing is important for him against his higher office ambitions.he can desert anything/anybody to achieve it.

(Rabble-Rouser: A person who stirs up popular opinion for political reasons)


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Saturday 8 February 2014

Sweating Rahul & “Adamant” Arnab: The Story of An Opportunity Lost…



“Ek Din Woh Mere Aib* Ginane Laga ‘Farab’,
Jab Khud Hi Thak Gaya Toh Muje Sochana Pada”
                                                                                                                                        (*Aib-faults)

120/80.. 125/85…130/90…135/95…140/100…130/90…125/85…120/80… hold, these are not projected figures of petroleum product prices in 2017 but blood pressure count of Rahul Gandhi during his 80 minutes encounter with Arnab Goswami. He might have felt this zigzag, fluctuating blood pressure as “Adamant”  Arnab started shooting ‘superficial ‘ questions to which our young vice president of AIC couldn’t  answer properly.

There are several angles to discover this historical (pun intended) political interview. It was a golden chance for the congress scion to prove his political capacity. Unfortunately, he became trapped in his own youthful ‘thinking’ politician’s image & Arnab skillfully emptied him.

In the beginning Rahul was looking very confident & fresh. He served initially with an ease & air of confidence was there, but by the middle of the interview he began losing his confidence. Reason? Poor briefing by his political mentors & lack of readiness on his part too. How come a vice president of India’s single largest political party couldn’t answer simple & straight forward questions when the nation wanted to know (oops, I am getting Arnabesque) the political vision of his party…

When ‘most awaited political interview on Indian television” is to take place it is always expected from both the sides (Interviewer/Interviewee) to be ready with ‘high end ammunition’ at their disposal, unfortunately  Rahul found himself struggling & shielding himself with age old bows & arrows while Arnab was shooting with Kalashnikov & smart bombs.

After this disastrous image, make over exercise some new questions have surfaced.First, is Rahul really capable of facing serious political challenges, which congress  party is facing? Second, is he really serious about what he said in the interview?, because this interview has changed the political discourse over night. Can we expect that congress scion has sharpened his sword against ’system’ & within a few days we may see some more congress leader’s heads rolling on the ground?

In media, academics television’s effect is called ‘magic multiplier’. For Rahul, who intended to take full benefit of this multiplication, seems lost in translation. The most bleeding part was his answers on the incidents of 1984 & 2002. As far as anti Sikh riots are concerned, he could have simply protected himself by using this platform to apologize  Sikhs worldwide & by doing that he could have cornered Narendra Modi for 2002.Unfortunately, he missed this golden opportunity to attack his attackers, especially when he has done it earlier before four years ago in a youth congress programs press conference. Just a simple reference of his congress elders could have done that.

Generally for public relations & image, make over soft platforms are used worldwide or a pre planned, ‘pre set’ interviews are ‘arranged’. In this interview’s case Congress’s media managers were proved utterly wrong. They put Rahul & Congress’s credibility at stake. How one can expect Arnab Goswami to ask soft & friendly questions to Rahul who was facing his first TV interview after a decade.

Though Rahul tried to push his agenda of RTI, women & youth empowerment & radical changes in ‘system’, he didn’t sound confident. His constantly sweat face from mid interview was enough proof of it, though  the interview was taken in ‘controlled environment’.

By the way, our ‘Adamant’ Arnab too lost a good opportunity to ask some more relevant questions regarding congress scion’s vision about the country’s future (apart from Rahul’s preset agenda). He could have elevated the level of interview by asking some really ground level question about congress’s internal problems & Rahul’s vision for next ten years or so, but he didn’t.

Anyways, it was a lost opportunity for both of them (fully for Rahulbhai & partly for Arnabbhai) but if we see the entire episode from a journalistic angle it must be accepted that Rahul was willing to prove his maturity, but Arnab’s journalistic experience over powered his political agenda. At the conclusion of this analysis Rahul’s position  reminds me a classic Urdu couplet which goes something like this…
“Samaney Duniyabhar Ke Gham Hai, Aur Idhar Ek Tanha Hum Hai,
Sainkado Patthar Ek Aaina*,Kab Tak Aakhir,Aakhir  Kab Tak..?”
                                                                                                                         (*Aaina-Mirror)
(Photo Courtsy-Gogle Images/Nirala Joshi)

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Friday 7 February 2014

Governance In This Country.. Doesn’t Require lot of Intellect It Only Requires a ‘Niyat'


Friends here is a guest post for all of you. We all know this gentleman in picture thanks to Robert vadra,brother in law of Shri Rahul Gandhi.AShok Khemka was recently invited in Mumbai by ace journalists Sucheta Dalal & Debashish basu for a public talk.I have received this word to word speech from a friend,please read it carefully......


At the outset, let me thank Sucheta Dalal & Debashis Basu for inviting me here. One of the reasons, I have chosen to be here is because I have heard of Sucheta Dalal during the Harshad Mehta scam, her investigative journalism that has been imprinted in my mind;

and to hear her name inviting me is an honour for me. It is a real privilege to be here on her invitation and to receive the honour of addressing an august audience in Mumbai on what citizens can do to promote the cause of governance, justice and equity.
 
It is a bit trepidating, after the erudite speeches of Sucheta and Debashis, and after hearing the research done by Debashis. Let me tell you, I am sure Moneylife Foundation would be doing excellent research in all the aspects they would be covering. I could find very little which I do not know from my personal life, which Debashis has not spoken to you about.
 
Since he has talked a bit of about my childhood, let me explain a few of the episodes, which he has highlighted here so that things are understood in their right perspective.
 
I joined schooling in 1973. At that time Indian languages were the medium of education. Indian languages were still in fashion, and in vogue at that time, not as is the concept now as English is the one and all. But I was admitted into a very elite English medium school of Kolkata, St. Xavier’s College and School. Both my parents were not very literate and that is the reason we did not speak English at home, and I was the first boy in my generation, who aspired to be an educationist and was admitted into very elite school.
 
That time I did not know English and have resources at home. Also since my parents and my sisters were from the Hindi medium schools, nobody could converse in English. So, the disability I had of being educated in English, which I could not comprehend, I would make it up by my effort by parroting the entire thing and then contextualising the questions and answers by making a ditto copy of the passages given in the text books for the exams.
 
I stood 1st in my class of 200 students, where we had very good students in my class at St. Xavier’s School. And that was for the 1st time in my class, I stood 1st, which was unbelievable in a class of 200 students. I think, I never received a greater joy and pride to see my father and mother standing with pride that Ashok came in 1st in his class.  They all thought I was very intelligent, but I knew I was not intelligent, I was only a hard worker.
 
Vouchers for education fees
 
This brings us to the thought of this Right to Education bill. I personally feel that this legislation is not very well thought out legislations. The reason is by just enabling something in and mandating it in elite schools, some students from poor background, who do not have an elite background, should be integrated just because the existent law may not work as well. All you really need is to make your own school inclusive, and ensure that teachers come and deliver quality education.
 
When I was the director for secondary education, I came out with a very startling fact, which I would like to be placed on record here. These things existed in Haryana and this may be true for most other states. In the year 2007, the state government was spending Rs800 per month per child from class one to class 10 on an average and the state of education was far below than normative levels. And only the very poor, and people from the downtrodden, who could not afford the private education, would be taking this education, where the government was spending more than the average spent in private schools. At that time my son was studying in one of the most elite private schools of Chandigarh, and we used to pay Rs1,000-Rs1,100 per month as his tuition fees, and where the teacher would be paid at 60%-70% of what government school teachers would be paid as salary. So I failed to understand this, though the government was spending almost as much money on education as you would pay for you own child in a private school without taking the account of capital costs, i.e. building, lands, infrastructure, and the quality left a lot to be desired.
 
Now though the Right to Information (RTI) is a big success, the Right to Education cannot be a success for a very simple reason, it doesn’t envisage, or it doesn’t tackle the teacher absenteeism, and the giving away of the quality education by the teacher to the students. That aspect is not covered or cannot be enforced under a right based legislation.
 
So, why governance is important? 
 
The governance is important because suddenly you have created institutions, you have created a large number of schools, where in a small state like Haryana you have 80-90 thousand teachers employed, they are all patronages. Most of them are patronage-based appointments, who are not delivering their output that they are supposed to deliver. There is no mechanism to enforce that kind of output from those teachers who are employed at the cost of the taxpayers or at public cost.
 
So I advised a simple thing, I told the chief minister (a file note was put in the year of 2007) that let’s do a scheme, let’s give choice to the citizen. So what was the choice? Start a voucher education programme, so give the voucher of Rs800, let’s start with the rural areas, girls and scheduled castes. So a very small segment of the budget. It would be a miniscule portion of the total education budget. Give the vouchers to the select list of rural scheduled caste girls who are easily identifiable and are mandated with the vouchers. These girls can walk to any school and claim education as the matter of Right and the state would reimburse the cost of these vouchers to the concerned schools.
 
This was much before the Right to Education legislation has come. My principal secretary initially posed a lot of questions:  how can this scheme be a success? What about hostels?  I said, “Sir, forget hostels, even if one girl student chooses to exercise this voucher, you have a situation of moving toward the par to optimality i.e. it would be a more optimal solution. If nobody exercised these vouchers, fair enough. You are not worse-off, you have not spent a single amount, but if one girl chooses to exercise the voucher by going to the school of her choice; any private school of her choice, your day is made, because as a consumer, as a citizen, she will feel that she will get better education with the help of these government vouchers.”
 
So he was fully convinced, both the education principal secretary and the finance principal secretary decided to go to the honourable chief minister with this brilliant scheme of Mr Ashok Khemka and I knew the end result.
 
LPG subsidy through DBTL
 
I had a very good equation with the then chief minister and let me tell you that, before 15 October 2012, the only punishment I received was a transfer. I was never charge sheeted nor any enquiries instituted upon me. It is only after 15 October 2012, that things have taken a turn.
 
So it is political sagacity as against bureaucratic sagacity, who only sit in the air conditioned offices and do not think beyond their offices. Where the shoe pinches, it is the felt reality.
 
Whatever we may criticise about politicians, they know. e.g.- I will speak about why this DBT (direct benefits transfer) was reversed. There is a very strong political logic for reversing the DBT for the LPG cylinders, so the CM didn’t buy the theory.
 
Then the two principle secretaries said, “Sir, please hear Mr Ashok Khemka, it is a very sound scheme.”
 
Since the scheme was not getting through, they wanted me to advocate my scheme there. I kept quiet and then suddenly the truth came out. The exact words said by him, he used the Haryanvi dialogue saying that “Why are you doing Khadadu?” The accusation was directed at me by the CM that means “Why are you creating trouble?” And he was blunt and forthright at that time. He said, “If this scheme is implemented, then very soon we will have to close down our government schools and what about the appointments (of teachers and other staff)?
 
So, I always say, the governance in this country is not rocket science, It doesn’t require lot of intellect it only requires a ‘niyat’ (The right intent). You maybe wrong but there is always time for a corrective step. The intent has to be right!
We had a lecture yesterday, by joint secretary from the PM’s office, He was speaking on Direct Benefit Transfer Scheme. When we talk about governance, justice and equity we are always looking (the reality is different from different perspectives) from the point of view of bringing in efficiencies in delivery services.
 
Bringing in efficiencies may have different paradigms for different stakeholders, it maybe very efficient for an oil company or government to do a direct benefit transfer for LPG Cylinders. But at the stroke of the elections to the Lok Sabha this (LPG refill per year per household) was increased from 9 to 12. This maybe populist form. I buy the logic that it should have been limited to six or seven, because the poorer you are, your energy consumption is lower, so the average consumption of lower as per statistics is six (LPG) cylinders. With nine cylinders, 90% of the household is covered. (Increasing it to) nine to 12 have certain logic, I don’t have any view upon it but, the decision to do a direct benefit transfer was reversed.
 
Now why it was reversed? It is a very simple game for the oil companies that they have paid a month’s subsidy in advance into your account and every time, you buy a new cylinder you will get another subsidy in advance. So there should have been no problem (maybe for you and me) but there was a problem for the common citizen. This was understood by the political class and I would say rightly, the DBT scheme for LPG gas cylinder was reversed. Why? You see, if you study this, there is a course of economics that it is not only about maximising utility. But you really, as an individual cannot calculate where the maximum in utility lies? These are all heuristic decisions. It is an intuition that this is the best decision that may or may not be correct always.
 
Now there is a thing, where you have to pay Rs1,200 in cash to the deliveryman for a LPG cylinder as against for the subsidised cylinder that costs say Rs500. So for a poor household, whose monthly household income would be Rs3,000 to Rs5,000, to cough up Rs1,200 in cash from the pocket maybe difficult. And to get the money in the bank account, where there is no internet banking, or no easy access to the ATM, to get the access to that subsidy would involve some amount of transaction cost, which we have not accounted for in this game of DBT for the LPG cylinders. So, there is a transaction cost of retrieving the subsidy or checking whether the subsidy has come to your account, or not. Besides the subsidy is going into the householder i.e. the head of the householder’s account, while the money is to be paid by the women folk of the household. These are issues, which have to be considered while designing any scheme from the citizen’s perspective.
 
So there was a strange logic. What I am trying to tell is that, efficiency may be something from the one side of the table. Efficiency may have a different paradigm from the notions of the efficiency, equity and justice from the citizens or the other side and other perspective. So, a very natural question which I addressed to the speaker, who was the architect of this DBT scheme that sir why did you choose LPG? Why you want to punish a household with this transaction costs? Simply because, you are not able to govern and administer the subsidy in a fair, efficient and a proper manner. Maybe there is 20% siphoning of your subsidy but because you are not able to administer, you are not able to govern a scheme, you are going to punish an eligible householder. It is not injustice it is like telling that, I am not able to stop the stealing of the electricity or stop people from travelling ticketless in trains and busses, so therefore, I am going to raise the ticket prices for paying public. It is not injustice? It is not failure of governance? So this to tell in Hindi; Mere nikkameypan ki saza koi aur bhugte.”
 
Why DBT scheme was chosen for LPG? See, after using DBT for scholarship, there was no outcry. This was because earlier it was a long process like writing of cheques in the office, posting it, the receiver receiving it and then depositing the same in the bank and so on. There are so many transactions involved in the scholarship schemes that were curtailed through DBT and that is why it is a success.
 
But I asked him, why you didn’t do DBT in agriculture ministry? I have been crying hoarse that, do a DBT for administration of various subsidy schemes in agriculture ministry. There is a host of corruption in the administration of those schemes, I am a personal complainant to the Standing Committee on Agriculture at the Parliament, highlighting that how corruption takes place in the administration of subsidies and DBT is one thing, where it would have achieved greater value in its objective by ensuring that the scheme is implemented in a better and more efficient manner. Why do I say so? There is tremendous corruption in the administration of subsidies in the agricultural ministry.  
For example, there is a scheme of subsidising drip irrigation in agriculture. The scheme is if you install drip irrigation system in your fields, you will get a subsidy of lets say Rs10,000 per acre or 50% of your investment. So what would the department do? The department would say “go and buy this equipment in which there is a 50% subsidy.” By some mechanism, let’s say its true market value of the equipment is Rs100. This would be then scaled up to Rs150. So 50% subsidy means it will be available to the farmer at Rs75. So the farmer will still buy it because he knows that its actual market value is Rs100 and he is getting it at Rs75. So for him, the effective subsidy is 25%, and he will buy it. But Rs75 from government’s account has gone where it should have been Rs25. The rest Rs50 is shared by the dealers and by the officials. This happens in seeds, pesticides, agriculture mechanism equipment and other items.
 
So why don’t you do DBT for agriculture subsidies? You tell the farmer, that you go and buy the seeds, pesticides, equipment of your choice from the open market from a recognised dealers. All dealers in the agriculture sector are licensed by the state agriculture department. So you cannot sell agricultural equipment without a license from the state agriculture department. So buy it from any of the licensed dealers and upon buying, we will subsidise a percentage of that, subject to a maximum of something, directly into your account. So, you have promoted choice at the level of consumers and you have also promoted competition from various producers, dealers. You can limit it by telling that, the produce or product which you are going to buy is going to be certified or it is going to have certain certifications. You can limit it to that extent. So why was it not done in agriculture?
 
So here is the question of choosing the appropriate scheme, how to implement? Seeing the citizen’s perspective and seeing the interest of taxpayers, all become very important in implementation. So, it is not something, which I discovered. Anywhere I go, it is very easy to see it and the only question is that your intent has to be right in implementing such things.
 
Now, what is governance and how is justice and equity interlinked with governance? 
 
Governance consists of three organs as we know; Legislature, Executive and Judiciary. For example, in a cricket match, if you want to see Tendulkar flourishing, showing his best elements, what are the essential ingredients? The essential ingredient is that the ground, which is prepared has to be a fair ground and a well prepared ground, the stadium has to be a good stadium so that you can have right ambience, there are spectators watching, the ground is well prepared for a very fair and good match. The rules are well laid down and will be executed properly. Who is going to ensure the execution and enforcement of the rules? The umpire. In case the umpire cheats and in case the players are not satisfied with the decision of umpire, you have the equivalent to the judiciary that is third umpire. So you have the provision to appeal the decision of the umpire to the third umpire.
 
Now understand, if any of these three items i.e.; ground preparation or the stadium, the umpire or the third umpire and the rules of the games are not fair, they are tilted towards one side, what would happen? The spectators will not get an exhilaration of seeing a superb shot or dive, bowl, fielding, the cricket lover will not get their value and enjoyment, and there would be no Tendulkar flourishing, there would be no Tendulkar coming out of the society. If Tendulkar has to bat always, he is going to try and snick the ball outside the off stump for a fine cut outside the third slip for a four. And if the ball is not nicked and caught behind by wicket keeper and he’s ruled out, would he even attempt that shot out of that fear? Or if he plays with the fear that if the ball touches pad and he is going to be declared leg before wicket (LBW) by an unfair umpire, would his talent flourish? The role of Government vis-à-vis its citizens is exactly this. 
 
The legislator must prepare a fair ground and fair rule of law, It is not be biased for the home team or the other side, the umpire or the executor is very fair while giving its decisions and there is trust and faith in the decisions of the third umpire or the judiciary. It is not always that we should see one dimensional side of governance. It is not always that you are corrupt or you are not corrupt but why corruption is interlinked to injustice and inequity?
 
Value of book reading
 
I suggest you to read a book by which I am very influenced. I have read few books in my life and two of the books, which impressed me greatly was, “My experiment with the truths”, the autobiography of Gandhiji and another is “Why nations fail?” written by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, professor of government and economics at MIT and Harvard University, respectively.
 
In this book, the authors, while tracing the history says that it is not geography of the nation, climate or other natural resources endowments, which makes a nation great or which is the result of the failure of the nation but its the people, human endowment and its institutions and particularly, its political institutions. The author describes how a virtuous cycle is created if political institutions are well developed, leading to well developed inclusive economic institutions, leading to all around prosperity. If political institutions are not well developed, it leads to underdeveloped extractive economic institutions, (extractive economic institutions means Dusro ka haq cheen ker ke, those in power appropriate to themselves) It leads to suboptimal performance in the economy, in the society leading to poverty,  impoverishment and dictatorship.
 
Robert Vadra land deal
 
So, in our case, this particular example, which was highlighted and this particular land transaction that I had cancelled, now what is the philosophy and why this kind of transaction which perpetrate our economy? This actually characterise the economy more as extractive institutions than inclusive.
 
What was the transaction about? There was no money in the account of Skylight Hospitality. A land was purchased for Rs7.5 crore on a particular date, registered on particular date, and after three months there was an agreement to sell, and that agreement to sell was of Rs58 crore. Within one year Rs50 crore was received, out of the Rs58 crore, in three instalments and after three years a registry was made of Rs58 crore and the balance of Rs8 crore was taken after three years and out of that the purchase price of Rs7.5 crore was paid. Now what was the entrepreneurship activity, which resulted in Rs7.5 crore being converted into Rs58 crore, two state permission only; one is the change in land dues and another is licensed to develop a commercial colony.
 
So, two state permissions multiplied the value of the same peace of land from Rs7.5 crore to Rs58 crore. This is exactly what is extractive economic institution and extractive political institution. Now, these kind of transactions are in galore. This was only an example, since I was not responsible for giving the licenses, I was not in the department. One would see that this kind of use of state powers to appropriate public wealth, the licenses are not like land licenses, 2G licenses or the Right to Mine the coal mines are similar the right to appropriate natural resources. Is it merely a loss of that wealth? The answer is no, it is much more, If you see at one angle, the nation probably, as per rough estimate done by me, it is about 3%-4% of GDP that gets lost in such kind of corrupt activity. This 3%-4% GDP, which is lost in such kind of corrupt activities, is not only a loss of rate of economic growth but also loss to the people, to the have not’s because it is the wealth which should have gone to the have not’s, which have been misappropriated by those in power and hence, this is termed in the book rightly as extractive institutions. But the multiplier effect of this loss is huge. How much is the multiplier effect is something? I think, it requires a great deal of research to understand and appreciate that what is the actual multiplier effect of such kind of losses. It could be several times more. So there, the element of inequity and justice comes in with the governance.
 
I had just done my duty
 
I do not know, as Debashis rightly said, I don’t like to be called a whistle blower. This is because by implication, a whistle blower is one who has blown his whistle on something which he has seen but it is not his duty to do so. Whatever I have done was in the course of my duties and I ask always an alternate question that had I not done so, it would have been a dereliction of duty.
 
So while not being dishonest is certainly not honest, being good and honest is not sufficient. As Bertrand Russell said, “It is not good to be good only, one has to be effectively good and effectively honest.”
 
For example, a person is being beaten up at the road outside Shivaji Park, some hoodlums are beating him, and all of us are honest and good. The area officer in-charge of the police station, is also honest and good. And all of them go away after seeing the incident, cluck their tongues and say... ‘yeh toh bahot ganda ho raha hai, bahot anyay ho raha hai, dekho isko pit rahe hai’. But you turn your eyes and walk away, the officer in-charge also says, I am law abiding, I am honest and good and if I am going to touch this, I will lose my job, I get transferred or heavens will fall upon me. He (the goon) maybe some VIP’s son or he is VIP. Certainly at that time the station officer or police inspector’s duty is to take action as per law against that hoodlum, book him, arrest him take action so that immediate relief is given to the man. As a citizen, it is your duty as well to say, look you are doing wrong. If you are alone, it maybe that he beats you up, you may be physically harmed that is the fear you have. Another voice joins you, you gather more strength. If ten more voices join you, then that hoodlum will walk away. He may threatening to the victim that, Tujhe dekh lunga kal. But at that instant he will definitely walk away.
 
What citizens can do?
 
So it is very important for citizens to get their voices together and the example which we have seen is the 16 December 2012 incident, very well known as the ‘Nirbhaya Gang Rape Case’, where the government was forced to act and act promptly by enacting a new legislation. Not only that, I think (I may not be very politically correct but) the Delhi Police did do one of its finest investigations in apprehending the culprits and prosecuting the case so that justice is delivered within a year’s time. Otherwise, there are more heinous cases happening in our society, where investigation is not done properly, or not properly prosecuted in courts. So it was the citizens’ voice which ensured that justice was given to the victim in that instance case.
 
If you just see once people come to India from abroad, they rush to immigration counters, there is no queuing in discipline. But if you land up in Singapore, European countries, London or any US county, you would see the same Indian would be queuing up. Why? The reason is that you know you will be told by the person who is in the queue that please come and follow the queue. You don’t listen, the second man also will join in and third man will also join in, and suddenly the whole queue will join and demand that please come and join the queue. But the same Indian, when he returns to India, will rush and crowd the immigration counters, as if he is not the first person, then the immigration counters will be closed and he will be standing at the airport itself.
 
I thank all of you for having invited me here, and I sincerely believe that governance is important for justice and equity and governance doesn’t require rocket science, it doesn’t require to many deliberations on policies, what will bring efficiency and what will not bring inefficiency. There is enough to be done in implementation. It is not rocket science, we only need to encourage people who are in government or people who are implementing policies to develop the right intent, to take pride in their jobs and not to demand a people who do their duty to join politics because as I tell if you are good at your job. For example, there is a good ‘mistry’ (master craftsman). But you don’t ask him to go and join politics. He is good at his job, so respect him for that.If one is good at his job, then respect him for that and allow him to continue in that job because he is good at it and he loves doing that job.
 
With that, I rest my speech, I don not know whether I have been very erudite or I have spoken my heart out and if have offended anybody inadvertently, I apologise and let me tell you again whatever views I expressed they were my personal and not that of the government.
 
Thank You!

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Friday 24 January 2014

Coughing kejriwal & His "Mobocratic" Governance



After 32 hours of media blitzkrieg & slogan shouting, AAP’s dharna drama was over. Undoubtedly it grabbed millions of eyeballs on India national (!) news channels, but it spread the message that ‘coughing’ kejriwal never wanted & expected. It reduced AAP’s credibility to an unexpected degree.
What the entire nation saw  in two day ‘tamasha’ was nothing but defeat of Kejriwal’s all political strategies & downfall of his (of course AAP’s too) image. He wasted a tremendous political opportunity to pressurize Congress & embarrass  BJP. Reason?, probably his (super) ego & wrong motives.
Arvind Kejriwal’s political timing was quite wrong this time. He being a chief minister of Delhi should have chosen for  some more democratic options to pressurize the Union Government, but he failed to do so because his motives were either irrelevant or unclear. He missed a great opportunity to use Dharna as a take off point for ‘Sampoorna Swarajya’ in Delhi. He started Dharma with the vow to get allegedly culprit policewalas  suspended, then he got one step lower and declared even transfers can do and ended with paid city for few day type solutions. He again reduced himself to ‘U turn Kejriwal’.
Well, the questions have again risen up on the way AAP is governing the national capital. Is mobocracy solution for all the problems of aam Aadmi? kejriwal & his cabinet colleagues are answerable to this questions since it seems they have taken for granted Delhiites for two days & ultimately ended nowhere.
As everyone knows the entire drama started to relieve the skin of Delhi’s law minister Somnath Bharti & to push some embarrassing questions under the rug. This time Delhiites didn’t support kejriwal & Co. Wholeheartedly because they got the clue of their actual intention. In guise of public opinion & public participation for all civic, law & order problems, actually AAP office bearers created mobocracy.
After this brazen act of literally street fighting for no common cause one thing has spurned out clearly that kejriwal & Co. We're unable to handle the situation sensibly, it was their highhandedness that made the situation worse for them. It was not at all an act of elected representatives of Delhi, it was vigilantism & political goal scoring exercise of a few activists turned full time politicians.
Just to settle the political accounts with Congress & BJP, kejriwal took a very risky step this time, with calling off his Dharma abruptly, he caused his popularity badly dented & bad press too. Like chariot of yudhishthir in kurukshetra remained two inches above the ground until he lied in dharmayuddha,  kejriwal lost his hard earned credibility in just 32 hours. This type of brazen acts & media centric gimmicks is marring the chances of AAP’s real popularity.
During this tamasha some of AAP’s spokesperson’s tried to compare their act with Mahatma Gandhi’s satyagraha. It was the height of shamelessness & utter  disrespect for Mahatmaji. Undoubtedly Gandhiji fought for poor, downtrodden people of this great nation, he went for fasting & satyagraha because his goal was clear, he was fighting with nations enemies, so when AAP’s spokespersons compared their agitation with Gandhiji’s satyagraha they reduce themselves to political pygmies. Gandhiji never wanted to seize a political office or a post. It seems Kejriwal & Co. Used this opportunity to ancash their image & hog the limelight in view of forthcoming General elections.
As usual this ruckus opened the doors for fierce debates on news channels. In some of the debates I also argued with AAP office bearers about their wrong doing in guise of people’s participation, only god knows how much I was able to win them over.
Kejriwal & Co. Needs to understand one thing clearly that in India you can  hog the media limelight for any Chantu Bantu’s petty problems but once you lose the hard earned respect you gained, all your political ambition will speedily vaporize. If things are happening to be like this in future AAP may loose its political credibility & chances of fast pace political expansion.

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